It is far beyond my crystal ball to be able to predict with confidence what the political, financial and tax climate will be 28 years from now. Keep in mind, also, that any effort to extend might occur years in advance of the expiration date.
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How likely is it that the OZ regulation will get extended instead of sunsetting on Dec. 31, 2047?
How would they determine if the program has been a success or not?
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Sorry, I have no idea.
In my estimation, the 2047 deadline has a 50/50 shot at getting extended.
The designation of QOZs now in existence will expire Dec. 31, 2028. The latest gain date eligible for deferral is Dec. 31, 2026. It is the ability to make a basis step-up election that expires Dec. 31, 2047. The likelihood that the dates will be extended is uncertain and will depend on politics and the popularity of the plan, as well as its actual or perceived effectiveness. The longevity of the program could be jeopardized if there are widely publicized and glaring abuses of the program. The precise criteria and mechanism for measuring the success of QOZs is evolving.
I think it is doubtful that the will extend the exit deadline beyond 2047, but it is possible that Treasury might consider expanding ending the deadline certainly in cases where a fund or asset cannot be disposed by the deadline. Program success will be evaluated by multiple critics, but from my perspective, the socioeconomic improvement in the OZ census tracts will be the best measure.
It's unlikely the IRS will extend the deadline for the step-up in basis election for QOF assets beyond 2047. Future reauthorization of the OZ program with new zones and timelines for investment would require congressional action. To that end, information regarding impact Opportunity Zone investments are having on desired outcomes in the designated zones will certainly play into the likelihood of that action.
It's really an unknown. ut I would say that it is more likely that it would not be extended since that would require actual legislation. It is impossible to predict the political climate and interest in extending this between now and 2047. I would expect that a success would be based on measurable and substantial improvement in the infrastructure and tax revenues within the various zones. This would be weighed against the cost in tax revenues to the government. I do believe that the long-term loss of tax revenue on capital gains will prove to outweigh the benefits of the program, at least financially speaking.
Currently there is no signs of a possible extension. There is a lot of discussion on the possible reporting requirements in order to be able to determine “success” of the program, but again nothing official yet.
The sunset occurs much earlier. The designation of a census tract as an Opportunity Zone terminates in the 2020s, I think. There is no way to guess whether it will be extended. It largely depends on political issues.
I’m guessing not likely soon.
I have no idea. I know better than to prognosticate for Congress.
I seriously doubt there will be any extension. But I guess they will look primarily at job creation to judge effectiveness.
Completely speculative. Metrics are being developed by Treasury and likely HUD on how to measure success.
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